The ‘perfect storm’ that enveloped Mali in 2012 has since escalated into a protracted and widespread crisis across the Sahel. The region currently hosts multiple, moving threats, which are most active in the three states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In those states alone, between 2012 and 2019, there have been 1,463 armed clashes, 4,723 civilians killed, at the hands of 195 violent armed groups, in 1,263 discrete locations.1¹ Violence reached its highest level to date in 2019 and continues at heightened frequency, suggesting a dangerous threshold has been reached and new frontlines loom. The critical lesson of this briefing is that this tsunami of conflict did not initially manifest as overtly Islamist or even ideologically coherent, but grew from opportunism. Populist rhetoric, displays of weakened state authority, a brutal—or absent—security sector, the militarization of neighbors, livelihoods and communities each constitute viable ways that the Sahel violence can metastasize through the wider region.

中文翻译：

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自2012年以来的萨赫勒危机

此后，2012年席卷马里的“完美风暴”升级为整个萨赫勒地区旷日持久的危机。该地区目前存在多种移动威胁，在马里，布基纳法索和尼日尔这三个州中最为活跃。仅在这些国家中，2012至2019年间，已经有1,463武装冲突，平民4,723杀害，在195个暴力武装团体手中，在1263离散locations.1 ¹暴力行为在2019年达到了迄今为​​止的最高水平，并以更高的频率持续增长，这表明已经达到危险的门槛，新的前线也即将出现。这次简报的关键教训是，这场冲突海啸最初并未表现出明显的伊斯兰主义甚至意识形态上的连贯性，而是源于机会主义。平民主义的言论，国家权力的削弱，安全部门的残酷或缺席，邻居，生计和社区的军事化，都是萨赫勒暴力活动可以在整个地区转移的可行方式。