The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for Pembrokeshire; the standard deviation is low at 0.07 per cent and the coefficient of variation is 0.04 per cent. In contrast, much wider variation is observed in the standard deviation for exports (0.36 per cent), investment (0.11 per cent) and consumption (0.14 per cent). The country results favour Scotland, which grows at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent, whereas Wales is the slowest growing of the countries at 1.7 per cent. Consistent with the macroeconomic analysis, international trade is the most important contributor to the regional variation in growth rates. We also analyse the effects of higher government consumption relative to the forecasts and find most regions are predicted to experience lower economic activity except the handful in which government consumption is a much higher share of GDP than average.

中文翻译：

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评估英国地区的长期增长前景

英国在中短期内面临许多经济挑战。在 COVID-19 之前，与欧盟重新谈判贸易安排是其中最突出的。我们在现有宏观经济分析的基础上，通过结合全球宏观经济计量模型和英国的区域可计算一般均衡来评估英国地区的前景。中央宏观经济情景显示，到 2044 年，全国 GDP 年均增长率为 1.7%。当宏观经济情景跨地区应用时，增长率从剑桥的 1.6% 到彭布罗克郡的 2.2%；标准差低至 0.07%，变异系数为 0.04%。相比之下，在出口（0.36%）、投资（0. 11%）和消费（0.14%）。该国的结果有利于苏格兰，其年增长率为 1.8%，而威尔士是这些国家中增长最慢的，为 1.7%。与宏观经济分析一致，国际贸易是造成地区增长率差异的最重要因素。我们还分析了政府消费增加相对于预测的影响，发现大多数地区预计将经历较低的经济活动，除了少数地区政府消费占 GDP 的份额远高于平均水平。国际贸易是造成区域增长率差异的最重要因素。我们还分析了政府消费增加相对于预测的影响，发现大多数地区预计将经历较低的经济活动，除了少数地区政府消费占 GDP 的份额远高于平均水平。国际贸易是造成区域增长率差异的最重要因素。我们还分析了政府消费增加相对于预测的影响，发现大多数地区预计将经历较低的经济活动，除了少数地区政府消费占 GDP 的份额远高于平均水平。