Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration threatened the European Union with tariffs on cars and car parts because of Canadian seafood being subject to lower import duties. As simulations with NiGEM show, a further escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict has the potential to slow down economic growth significantly in the countries involved. This is a considerable risk given the fact that the countries have to cope with the enormous negative effects of the pandemic shock. Furthermore, the damage caused by the trade conflict depends on the extent to which the affected countries use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies.

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欧洲财政规则作为跨大西洋贸易冲突中的责任：NiGEM 模拟的经验教训

在特朗普执政期间，跨大西洋贸易冲突逐步升级。首先，它是关于钢铁和铝的关税，然后是对法国数字税的报复，该税将暂停到今年年底。最近，由于加拿大海产品的进口关税较低，美国政府威胁要对汽车和汽车零部件征收关税。正如 NiGEM 的模拟所示，跨大西洋贸易冲突的进一步升级有可能显着减缓相关国家的经济增长。鉴于各国必须应对大流行冲击的巨大负面影响，这是一个相当大的风险。此外，