In October 2016, the proposed peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) was narrowly defeated in a referendum that sought its public approval. This article examines how previous structured political predispositions and attitudes shape voters’ preferences in a referendum. In a combined survey—a face-to-face sample in Bogotá and an online sample—conducted before the plebiscite, it identifies voter cleavages using principal component analysis (PCA). It finds three consistent components with profiles reflecting whether an individual is a progovernment citizen, a right-conservative voter, and a citizen with an evangelical religious identity. The findings suggest that voters are heterogeneous and that different predispositions and attitudes cluster in specific types of voters, which shaped these voters’ willingness to endorse the proposed peace agreement.

中文翻译：

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“Paz sí, pero no así”？选民概况和对 2016 年哥伦比亚和平协议的态度

2016 年 10 月，哥伦比亚政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量 (FARC) 之间拟议的和平协议在一场寻求公众批准的公投中以微弱优势被否决。本文探讨了先前结构化的政治倾向和态度如何塑造选民在公投中的偏好。在全民投票之前进行的一项综合调查（波哥大的面对面样本和在线样本）中，它使用主成分分析 (PCA) 识别选民的分裂。它找到了三个一致的组成部分，其概况反映了个人是否是亲政府公民、右翼保守派选民和具有福音派宗教身份的公民。研究结果表明，选民是异质的，不同的倾向和态度聚集在特定类型的选民中，