Between the Second Punic War and the Early Principate several sources of evidence indicate that the Roman economy experienced some measure of (limited) growth. The case for intensive growth is founded on two complementary approaches. The first has been to construct an “argument from convergence”, which observes that several archaeological data-sets, such as Mediterranean shipwrecks, deposits of domestic animal bones at Italian sites and samples of lead and copper pollution from Arctic ice cores and lake sediments, show an increase in chronological distribution during the Late Republic and Early Empire.1 If taken as proxies for the volume and intensity of exchange, consumption and production, respectively, then, as W. Scheidel has argued, “we may reasonably assume that [these data-sets] indicate at least the general direction of economic development”.2 A second approach has attempted to quantify the GDP of the Roman economy. Although highly conjectural, where such estimates are possible they provide an insight into the trajectory of economic development by giving a rough indication of the rate at which it was probable to have grown or contracted over a given period.3 P. Kay‘s “probabilistic quantification” of the GDP of Roman Italy for the 2nd and early 1st c. B.C.4 concludes that the economy experienced extensive and probably also intensive growth because the rate of inflation remained at a relatively low level.5 His estimate that prices rose by 95% between 150 and 50 B.C. (i.e., at a compound rate of 0.67% per annum) accords with the broadly similar conclusions reached by other scholars.6 Although Kay warns that “the estimates we have produced are assumptions, not facts”, the results are both plausible and credible from a comparative perspective.7

中文翻译：

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共和国晚期和早期公国时​​期罗马法和海上贸易的平行发展

在第二次布匿战争和早期原则之间，有几个证据表明罗马经济经历了某种程度的（有限）增长。集约增长的理由是建立在两种互补的方法之上的。第一个是构建一个“收敛论”，它观察到几个考古数据集，例如地中海沉船、意大利遗址的家畜骨骼沉积物以及北极冰芯和湖泊沉积物的铅和铜污染样本，显示在共和国晚期和帝国早期的时间分布有所增加。1如果分别作为交换、消费和生产的数量和强度的代表，那么，正如 W. Scheidel 所说，“我们可以合理地假设 [这些数据集] 至少表明了经济发展的总体方向”。2第二种方法试图量化罗马经济的 GDP。尽管这种估计是高度推测性的，但在可能的情况下，它们通过粗略地表明在给定时期内可能增长或收缩的速度，提供了对经济发展轨迹的洞察。3P. Kay 对 2 世纪和 1 世纪初罗马意大利 GDP 的“概率量化”。公元前4得出的结论是，由于通货膨胀率保持在相对较低的水平，经济经历了广泛且可能也是密集的增长。5他估计价格在公元前 150 年到 50 年间上涨了 95%（即复合增长率为 0.67%每年) 与其他学者得出的大致相似的结论一致。6尽管凯警告说“我们得出的估计是假设，而不是事实”，但从比较的角度来看，结果既合理又可信。7