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Keynes's trading on Wall Street: did he follow the same behaviour when investing for himself and for King's?
Financial History Review ( IF 0.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-03 , DOI: 10.1017/s0968565020000256
Eleonora Sanfilippo

In the last few years Keynes's investment activity, both as an individual trader and as a manager of institutions’ portfolios, has attracted attention in the specialised literature. Recently his investments on Wall Street, in particular – both on his own account (Cristiano, Marcuzzo and Sanfilippo 2018) and on behalf of King's College, Cambridge (Chambers and Kabiri 2016) – have been analysed, and the evident connection with his theoretical analysis of the functioning of the financial markets contained in chapter 12 of The General Theory has been duly stressed. This article aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of Keynes's trading behaviour on Wall Street by providing a detailed comparison of his investment choices when he traded for himself and for King's. There are similarities, as might be expected, but also significant differences, well worth investigating. As far as the differences are concerned, one of the most striking is to be seen, for instance, in his attitude when, after a period of bull market in 1936, he had to face the spring 1937 burst of the speculative bubble and subsequent recession. Analysis of his behaviour in this specific case reveals that the event took him by surprise but his reaction differed with regard to his personal investments and the King's investments. The prevalence of a ‘buy and hold’ strategy, which, according to Chambers and Kabiri's reconstruction (2016), marked Keynes's behaviour in general (and also in this particular case) when he invested on behalf of King's, was not always his typical choice when the investments were undertaken on his own account. A tentative explanation of this result, which is also grounded on some different features characterising the two portfolios and not sufficiently investigated in previous studies, is at last provided in the article.

中文翻译:

凯恩斯在华尔街的交易:他在为自己和为 King's 投资时是否遵循同样的行为?

在过去的几年里,凯恩斯的投资活动,无论是作为个人交易者还是作为机构投资组合的经理,都引起了专业文献的关注。最近分析了他在华尔街的投资,尤其是他自己的投资(Cristiano、Marcuzzo 和 Sanfilippo 2018)以及代表剑桥国王学院(Chambers 和 Kabiri 2016),并分析了与他的理论分析的明显联系金融市场运作的第 12 章一般理论得到了适当的强调。本文旨在通过详细比较凯恩斯为自己和为 King's 交易时的投资选择,有助于更全面地了解凯恩斯在华尔街的交易行为。正如预期的那样,有相似之处,但也有显着差异,非常值得研究。就差异而言,其中一个最引人注目的就是他的态度,例如,在经历了 1936 年的牛市之后,他不得不面对 1937 年春天的投机泡沫破灭和随后的衰退时的态度。 . 分析他在这个具体案例中的行为表明,这件事让他感到意外,但他对个人投资和国王的投资的反应不同。“买入并持有”策略的盛行,其中,根据钱伯斯和卡比里 (Chambers) 和卡比里 (Kabiri) 的重建(2016 年),这标志着凯恩斯在代表 King's 投资时的一般行为(以及在这个特殊情况下),当以自己的账户进行投资时,并不总是他的典型选择。最后在文章中提供了对该结果的初步解释,该结果也基于表征这两个投资组合的一些不同特征,并且在先前的研究中没有充分研究。
更新日期:2021-03-03
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