Three decades after what is widely referred to as the transition from a First to a Second Nuclear Age, the world stands on the cusp of a possible Third Nuclear Age where the way that we conceptualise the central dynamics of the nuclear game will change again. This paradigm shift is being driven by the growth and spread of non-nuclear technologies with strategic applications and by a shift in thinking about the sources of nuclear threats and how they should be addressed, primarily, but not solely, in the United States. Recent scholarship has rightly identified a new set of challenges posed by the development of strategic non-nuclear weaponry (SNNW). But the full implications of this transformation in policy, technology and thinking for the global nuclear order as a whole have so far been underexplored. To remedy this, we look further ahead to the ways in which current trends, if taken to their logical conclusion, have the capacity to usher in a new nuclear era. We argue that in the years ahead, SNNW will increasingly shape the nuclear order, particularly in relation to questions of stability and risk. In the Third Nuclear Age, nuclear deployments, postures, balances, arms control, non-proliferation policy, and the prospects for disarmament, will all be shaped as much by developments in SNNW capabilities as by nuclear weapons. Consequently, we advocate for an urgent reassessment of the way nuclear order and nuclear risks are conceptualised as we confront the challenges of a Third Nuclear Age.

中文翻译：

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战略非核武器和第三核时代的开始

在被广泛称为从第一个核时代过渡到第二个核时代的 30 年后，世界正处于可能的第三个核时代的风口浪尖，我们对核游戏核心动力的概念化方式将再次发生变化。这种范式转变是由具有战略应用的非核技术的增长和传播以及对核威胁的来源以及应如何解决的思考的转变推动的，主要但不仅仅是在美国。最近的学术研究正确地确定了战略非核武器（SNNW）发展带来的一系列新挑战。但迄今为止，这种政策、技术和思维转变对整个全球核秩序的全面影响尚未得到充分探索。为了解决这个问题，我们进一步展望当前趋势，如果按照其合乎逻辑的结论，有能力开创一个新的核时代。我们认为，在未来几年，SNNW 将越来越多地塑造核秩序，特别是在稳定性和风险问题方面。在第三个核时代，核部署、态势、平衡、军备控制、防扩散政策和裁军前景，都将受到 SNNW 能力发展的影响，就像核武器一样。因此，当我们面临第三个核时代的挑战时，我们主张对核秩序和核风险的概念化方式进行紧急重新评估。SNNW 将越来越多地塑造核秩序，特别是在稳定性和风险问题方面。在第三个核时代，核部署、态势、平衡、军备控制、防扩散政策和裁军前景，都将受到 SNNW 能力发展的影响，就像核武器一样。因此，当我们面临第三个核时代的挑战时，我们主张对核秩序和核风险的概念化方式进行紧急重新评估。SNNW 将越来越多地塑造核秩序，特别是在稳定性和风险问题方面。在第三个核时代，核部署、态势、平衡、军备控制、防扩散政策和裁军前景，都将受到 SNNW 能力发展的影响，就像核武器一样。因此，当我们面临第三个核时代的挑战时，我们主张对核秩序和核风险的概念化方式进行紧急重新评估。