This paper considers contractarianism as a method of justification. The analysis accepts the key tenets of contractarianism: expected utility maximization, unanimity as the criteria of acceptance, and social-scientific uncertainty of modelled agents. In addition to these three features, however, the analysis introduces a fourth feature: a criteria of rational belief formation, viz. Bayesian belief updating. Using a formal model, this paper identifies a decisive objection to contractarian justification. Insofar as contractarian projects approximate the Agreement Model, therefore, they fail to justify their conclusions. Insofar as they fail to approximate the Agreement Model, they must explain which modelling assumption they reject.

中文翻译：

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理性、不确定性和一致：对契约主义的认知批判

本文认为契约主义是一种辩护方法。该分析接受了契约主义的关键原则：预期效用最大化、作为接受标准的一致意见以及建模代理的社会科学不确定性。然而，除了这三个特征之外，该分析还引入了第四个特征：理性信念形成的标准，即。贝叶斯信念更新。使用正式模型，本文确定了对契约论辩护的决定性反对意见。因此，就契约式项目接近协议模型而言，他们无法证明他们的结论是正确的。只要他们无法近似协议模型，他们就必须解释他们拒绝哪种建模假设。