This paper has two main goals. The first is to fill a gap in the literature on inductive risk by exploring the relevance of the notion of inductive risk to macroeconomics. The second is to draw some general lessons about inductive risk from the case discussed here. The most important of these lessons is that the notion of inductive risk is no less relevant to the relationship between the proximate and distal goals of policy than it is to the relationship between specific policies and their proximate goals.

中文翻译：

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宏观经济学中的归纳风险：自然利率理论、货币政策和加拿大大萧条

本文有两个主要目标。首先是通过探索归纳风险概念与宏观经济学的相关性来填补归纳风险文献中的空白。第二个是从这里讨论的案例中得出一些关于感应风险的一般性经验。这些教训中最重要的是，归纳风险的概念与政策的近期和远期目标之间的关系不亚于具体政策与其近期目标之间的关系。