We construct a double common factor model for projecting the mortality of a population using as a reference the minimum death rate at each age among a large number of countries. In particular, the female and male minimum death rates, described as best-performance or best-practice rates, are first modelled by a common factor model structure with both common and sex-specific parameters. The differences between the death rates of the population under study and the best-performance rates are then modelled by another common factor model structure. An important result of using our proposed model is that the projected death rates of the population being considered are coherent with the projected best-performance rates in the long term, the latter of which serves as a very useful reference for the projection based on the collective experience of multiple countries. Our out-of-sample analysis shows that the new model has potential to outperform some conventional approaches in mortality projection.

中文翻译：

---

使用最佳表现死亡率作为参考的死亡率预测的双公因子模型

我们构建了一个双公因子模型来预测人口死亡率，并使用大量国家中每个年龄的最低死亡率作为参考。特别是，女性和男性的最低死亡率，被描述为最佳表现或最佳实践率，首先由具有共同和特定性别参数的共同因素模型结构建模。然后通过另一个公因子模型结构对所研究人群的死亡率与最佳表现率之间的差异进行建模。使用我们提出的模型的一个重要结果是，所考虑的人口的预计死亡率与长期预计的最佳绩效率是一致的，后者为基于多个国家的集体经验的预测提供了非常有用的参考。我们的样本外分析表明，新模型有可能在死亡率预测方面优于一些传统方法。