The retirement systems in many developed countries have been increasingly moving from defined benefit towards defined contribution system. In defined contribution systems, financial and longevity risks are shifted from pension providers to retirees. In this paper, we use a probabilistic approach to analyse the uncertainty associated with superannuation accumulation and decumulation. We apply an economic scenario generator called the Simulation of Uncertainty for Pension Analysis (SUPA) model to project uncertain future financial and economic variables. This multi-factor stochastic investment model, based on the Monte Carlo method, allows us to obtain the probability distribution of possible outcomes regarding the superannuation accumulation and decumulation phases, such as relevant percentiles. We present two examples to demonstrate the implementation of the SUPA model for the uncertainties during both phases under the current superannuation and Age Pension policy, and test two superannuation policy reforms suggested by the Grattan Institute.

中文翻译：

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使用随机经济情景生成器分析不确定的养老金和退休结果

许多发达国家的退休制度越来越多地从固定福利转向固定缴款制度。在固定缴款制度中，财务和长寿风险从养老金提供者转移到退休人员身上。在本文中，我们使用概率方法来分析与养老金累积和递减相关的不确定性。我们应用称为养老金分析不确定性模拟 (SUPA) 模型的经济情景生成器来预测不确定的未来金融和经济变量。这种基于蒙特卡洛方法的多因素随机投资模型使我们能够获得有关养老金积累和递减阶段的可能结果的概率分布，例如相关的百分位数。