Although climate change impacts on the agricultural sector were investigated intensively, however, vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning at the community level are still limited. This study aimed at providing a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment of four agriculture responses of barley production, wheat production, olive trees production, and goats’ mortality at the Yarmouk River Basin in northern Jordan using a qualitative-quantitative scoring method based on actual estimations of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity with an emphasis on community engagement. Thirty-year temporal variability (1982–2012) analysis using Kendall test and Pearson correlation test for three climatic variables (maximum and minimum air temperature, and annual rainfall) indicates high significant exposure level of increasing air temperature trends by rates of 0.07 °C/year and 0.06 °C/year for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, and insignificant annual rainfall reductions ranging spatially from 2.1 mm/year at Irbid governorate to 2.9 mm/year at Mafraq Governorate. Agriculture responses sensitivity assessment indicates goats’ mortality followed by olive production are moderately correlated with climate variables (r ranges from 0.32 to 0.57). The adaptive capacity assessment highlights the presence of low to moderate financial, institutional, political enforcement, technology implementation, and awareness of the farmers to climate change impacts and potential adaptation measures that subjected the study area to be ranked as moderately to highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Multi-criteria decision analysis suggests that irrigation water-related adaptation measures are listed within top priorities. This paper addresses the qualitative-quantitative vulnerability assessment approach at the local rural level and through participatory engagements to be effective for improving the vulnerable adaptive capacities and suggesting further recommendations to be mainstreamed urgently with governmental strategies and action plans.

尽管对气候变化对农业部门的影响进行了深入研究，但是，社区一级的脆弱性评估和适应计划仍然有限。这项研究旨在使用定性-定量的评分方法，基于约旦北部地区的雅尔穆克河流域，对大麦产量，小麦产量，橄榄树产量和山羊死亡率的四种农业响应提供全面的气候变化脆弱性评估。曝光度，敏感性和适应能力，重点是社区参与。使用Kendall检验和Pearson相关检验的三十年时间变异性（1982-2012）分析三个气候变量（最高和最低气温，和年降雨量）表明最高气温和最高气温分别以0.07°C /年和0.06°C /年的速度升高空气温度趋势的显着暴露水平，而Irbid的年降雨量减少空间不大，为2.1 mm /年Mafraq省每年省地2.9毫米。农业对农业敏感度的评估表明，山羊的死亡率和随后的橄榄产量与气候变量具有中等程度的相关性（r的范围是0.32到0.57）。适应能力评估强调了中低度的财政，体制，政治执行，技术实施以及农民对气候变化影响的意识以及潜在的适应措施，这些适应措施使研究区被列为中等易受气候变化影响的中度地区。影响。多标准决策分析表明，与灌溉水有关的适应措施已列为当务之急。本文介绍了在农村地区通过定性和定量的脆弱性评估方法，并通过参与性活动有效地提高了脆弱性的适应能力，并提出了进一步的建议，这些建议应尽快与政府战略和行动计划一起纳入主流。