Forest biomass can be used in two different ways to limit the growth of the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations: (1) to provide negative emissions through sequestration of carbon into forests and harvested wood products or (2) to avoid GHG emissions through substitution of non-renewable raw materials with wood. We study the trade-offs and synergies between these strategies using three different Finnish national-level forest scenarios between 2015 and 2044 as examples. We demonstrate how GHG emissions change when wood harvest rates are increased. We take into account CO₂ and other greenhouse gas flows in the forest, the decay rate of harvested wood products and fossil-based CO₂ emissions that can be avoided by substituting alternative materials with wood derived from increased harvests. We considered uncertainties of key parameters by using stochastic simulation. According to our results, an increase in harvest rates in Finland increased the total net GHG flow to the atmosphere virtually certainly or very likely, given the uncertainties and time frame considered. This was because the increased biomass-based CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere together with decreased carbon sequestration into the forest were very likely higher than the avoided fossil-based CO₂ emissions. The reverse of this conclusion would require that compared to what was studied in this paper, the share of long-living wood products in the product mix would be higher, carbon dioxide from bioenergy production would be captured and stored, and reduction in forest carbon equivalent net sink due to wood harvesting would be minimized.

森林生物量可以两种不同的方式用于限制大气温室气体（GHG）浓度的增长：（1）通过将碳固存到森林和采伐的木材产品中来提供负排放，或者（2）通过替代来避免温室气体排放不可再生的木材原料。我们以2015年至2044年间三种不同的芬兰国家级森林情景为例，研究了这些策略之间的取舍和协同作用。我们证明了增加木材采伐率时温室气体排放量如何变化。我们考虑了森林中的CO ₂和其他温室气体流量，收获的木制品和化石基CO ₂的衰减率可以通过用采伐量增加的木材代替替代材料来避免排放。我们通过随机模拟考虑了关键参数的不确定性。根据我们的结果，考虑到不确定性和时间框架，芬兰收割率的提高几乎肯定或非常有可能增加了向大气中排放的温室气体总量。这是因为增加的生物质基CO ₂和其他温室气体向大气的排放以及减少的碳固存到森林中的可能性都比避免使用化石基的CO _2高。排放。该结论的相反要求是，与本文所研究的相比，长寿命木制品在产品组合中所占的比例更高，生物能源生产中的二氧化碳将被捕获和储存，并减少森林碳当量由于采伐木材而导致的净汇减少到最小。