This study aims to examine the feasibility of the Northeast Passage for container transportation during the period of 2020–2030. A novel model is developed to study the impact of sea-ice conditions on freight rate between the Northeast Passage and Suez Canal Route on a round voyage. The sea-ice concentration and thickness are treated as key factors controlling the use of icebreakers, operational speed, and route planning in the model. Freight rates, shipowner profits, and consumer demands on both routes are determined as model outputs. Three scenarios in 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively are used to test the model.

中文翻译：

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东北航道的可行性：在2020-2030年期间，由海冰条件决定的船速，航线规划和破冰援助在集装箱运输市场中的作用

这项研究的目的是研究2020-2030年间东北通道进行集装箱运输的可行性。开发了一种新颖的模型来研究海冰条件对往返于东北航道和苏伊士运河航线之间的运费率的影响。海冰的浓度和厚度被视为控制模型中破冰船的使用，运行速度和路线规划的关键因素。将两条路线的运费，船东利润和消费者需求确定为模型输出。该模型分别使用了2020年，2025年和2030年的三种情景进行测试。