Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.

中文翻译：

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解开农业黑匣子：美国农业生产力增长的兴衰

美国农业生产力增长的黄金时代结束了吗？我们分析了跨越一个世纪美国农业深刻变化的生产力增长的详细模式。我们记录了美国农业生产力增长大幅放缓，这是在本世纪中叶后期的一次激增之后——在美国工业生产力增长激增和放缓 20 年后。我们假设并实证探讨了农业生产力急剧下降的三个相关解释：农业研发驱动的知识存量的时间路径；与大量发明相关的一大波技术进步；农业结构转型的动态方面，到 1980 年基本完成。