This research note examines the change in the degree of persistence in the Croatian tourism indicators, foreign arrivals, and overnight stays, due to the COVID-19 pandemic using recursive estimation of a fractional integration model. The results indicate that the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as permanent in nature. The policy response to restore tourism to its original trend should consider whether such policies proceed as in the past with the promotion of the traditional tourism growth model or support the transformation toward a more sustainable tourism model.

中文翻译：

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克罗地亚旅游业的持续发展：COVID-19的影响

本研究报告使用分数积分模型的递归估计，研究了由于COVID-19大流行而导致的克罗地亚旅游业指标，外国游客到来和过夜住宿的持续程度的变化。结果表明，COVID-19大流行造成的冲击可以被视为自然界中的永久性事件。将旅游业恢复到其原始趋势的政策应对措施应考虑是像过去那样随着传统旅游业增长模式的发展而继续执行此类政策，还是应支持向更加可持续的旅游业模式的转变。