The COVID-19 pandemic produced widespread disruption to schooling, impacting 90% of the world’s students and moving entire school systems to remote and online learning. In the state of New South Wales, Australia, most students engaged in learning from home for at least eight weeks, with subsequent individual and intermittent school closures. However, while numerous claims have circulated in the popular media and in think tank reports, internationally, about the negative impacts on learning, there is limited empirical evidence of decreased student achievement. Drawing on data from more than 4800 Year 3 and 4 students from 113 NSW government schools, this paper compares student achievement during 2019 and 2020 in a sample of matched schools to examine the effects of the system-wide disruption. Somewhat surprisingly, our analysis found no significant differences between 2019 and 2020 in student achievement growth as measured by progressive achievement tests in mathematics or reading. A more nuanced picture emerges when the sample is examined by dis/advantage (ICSEA) and Year level. The Year 3 cohort in the least advantaged schools (ICSEA < 950) achieved 2 months less growth in mathematics, while the Year 3 students in mid-ICSEA schools (950–1050) achieved 2 months’ additional growth. No significant differences were identified for Indigenous students or students located in regional locations. These results provide an important counter-narrative to widespread speculation about alarming levels of ‘learning loss’ for all students. While the lower achievement growth in mathematics for Year 3 students in lower ICSEA schools must be addressed as a matter of urgency to avoid further inequities, most students are, academically, where they are expected to be. Our findings are a testament to the dedicated work of teachers during the 2020 pandemic to ensure that learning for most students was not compromised, despite unusually trying circumstances.

COVID-19 大流行对学校教育造成了广泛破坏，影响了全球 90% 的学生，并使整个学校系统转向远程和在线学习。在澳大利亚新南威尔士州，大多数学生在家学习至少八周，随后个别和间歇性关闭学校。然而，尽管在国际上流行媒体和智库报告中流传着许多关于对学习的负面影响的说法，但关于学生成绩下降的经验证据有限。本文利用来自 113 所新南威尔士州公立学校的 4800 多名三年级和四年级学生的数据，比较了 2019 年和 2020 年匹配学校样本中的学生成绩，以检验全系统中断的影响。有点意外，我们的分析发现，2019 年和 2020 年在学生成绩增长方面没有显着差异，这是通过数学或阅读方面的进步成绩测试来衡量的。当按劣势/优势 (ICSEA) 和年份级别检查样本时，会出现更细微的画面。条件最差的学校（ICSEA < 950）的三年级学生的数学增长减少了 2 个月，而 ICSEA 中等学校（950-1050）的三年级学生的数学增长增加了 2 个月。对于土著学生或位于区域位置的学生，没有发现显着差异。这些结果为关于所有学生“学习损失”程度惊人的广泛猜测提供了重要的反叙述。虽然必须紧急解决较低 ICSEA 学校 3 年级学生数学成绩增长较低的问题，以避免进一步的不平等，但大多数学生在学业上都达到了预期的水平。我们的调查结果证明了教师在 2020 年大流行期间的辛勤工作，以确保大多数学生的学习不受影响，尽管情况异常艰难。