We study the channels through which ‘deep’ historical or geographical determinants of development are connected to present outcomes. We distinguish three classes of theoretical processes that explain this connection—persistence, path-dependence due to multiple equilibria, and transitions between growth regimes—and explore the implications of each for the evolution of deep determinants’ impacts. Replicating the analyses of 43 determinants identified in the literature at different points in time, we find that the evolutionary pattern of the impact of determinants is mostly consistent with a hybrid theory of multiple equilibria and transitions between growth regimes. Specifically, we find that the effects of determinants are neither constant nor slowly waning over time, but appear to be increasing or peaking around the turn of the century.

我们研究了“深层”发展历史或地理决定因素与当前成果相关联的渠道。我们区分了三类解释这种联系的理论过程-持久性，由于多重均衡引起的路径依赖以及增长机制之间的转换-并探讨了每种对深层决定因素影响演变的意义。重复分析文献中在不同时间点确定的43个决定因素的分析，我们发现，决定因素影响的演化模式与多重均衡和增长机制之间的过渡的混合理论基本一致。具体来说，我们发现行列式的影响既不是恒定的，也不是随着时间的推移而逐渐减弱，而是在本世纪初左右逐渐增加或达到顶峰。