We model a stable population that has experienced an important historical event and the declining proportion, as time passes, of the population that remembers that event. The proportion is determined by the demographic characteristics of the population, including its age distribution, the natural rate of growth, the underlying birth rate, the life table probabilities to which the population is subject, and the effects of immigration and emigration under alternative assumptions about the nature of the event. (We distinguish between “local” and “universal” events.) It is determined also by the choice of an age of awareness of children at the time the event occurred. We preface development of the model by noting examples of major events of the kind we have in mind and, after development, explore the model's sensitivity to different parameter specifications by experimental simulation. The output of each experiment is a sequence of “remembering” proportions at successive decade intervals and the corresponding mean ages of the “rememberers” in relation to the overall mean age of the population.

中文翻译：

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活着的记忆中：稳定人口中事件回忆的人口动态*

我们建立了一个稳定的人口模型，该人口经历了一次重要的历史事件，并且随着时间的流逝，记住这一事件的人口比例不断下降。该比例由人口的人口统计学特征决定，包括其年龄分布，自然增长率，基本出生率，人口所承受的生命表概率以及在以下假设下的移民和移民影响：事件的性质。（我们将“本地”事件和“普遍”事件区分开。）这也取决于事件发生时对儿童的了解年龄的选择。我们通过注意我们所想到的此类重大事件的示例来为模型的开发做序，并在开发后探索模型的“ 通过实验仿真对不同参数规格的敏感性。每个实验的输出是连续十个间隔的“记忆”比例序列以及相对于总体总体平均年龄的“记忆”的相应平均年龄。