In economic practice, the annual inflation rate is commonly used. As a one-sided moving average of the annualized inflation rate, it is approximately 6 months behind the annualized and monthly inflation rates and the CPI. The annual rate of inflation is, in fact, a smoothing transformation that removes the seasonal component from the annualized inflation rate, assuming the presence of all seasonal unit roots. In reality, however, the CPIs, and thus the annualized inflation rates, do not contain most of seasonal unit roots, resulting in spurious cycles of annual inflation rates, which pose difficulties in assessing and interpreting their development dynamics. Their practical applications in econometric analyses are limited because the unit root tests too often do not reject the zero hypothesis of the presence of unit roots when annual inflation rates are actually stationary. Parameter estimates of the annual inflation rate models are biased and inaccurate, allowing only incorrect short-term forecasts. The above facts make use of the annual inflation rate indicator in real economic situations questionable.

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年通胀率指标问题

在经济实践中，常用年通货膨胀率。作为年化通胀率的单向移动平均线，其比年化通胀率、月度通胀率以及CPI大约落后6个月。事实上，年通货膨胀率是一种平滑变换，假设存在所有季节性单位根，则从年化通货膨胀率中去除季节性成分。然而，实际上，消费者物价指数以及年化通胀率并不包含大部分季节性单位根，导致年通胀率出现虚假周期，这给评估和解释其发展动态带来了困难。它们在计量经济分析中的实际应用受到限制，因为当年通货膨胀率实际上稳定时，单位根检验常常不会拒绝单位根存在的零假设。年通货膨胀率模型的参数估计存在偏差且不准确，只允许错误的短期预测。上述事实使得年通胀率指标在实际经济情况下的使用值得怀疑。