The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is difficult to assess. However, determining the possible effects of climate change is an absolute necessity for planning by decision-makers. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower model of DSSAT4.7 and the assessment of impact of climate change on sunflower yield under future climate projections. For this purpose, a 2-year sunflower field experiment was conducted under semi-arid conditions in the Konya province of Turkey. Rainfed and irrigated treatments were used for model analysis. For the assessment of impact of climate change, three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways, i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 were selected. The evaluation of the model showed that the model was able to simulate yield reasonably well, with normalized root mean square error of 1.3% for the irrigated treatment and 17.7% for the rainfed treatment, a d-index of 0.98 and a modelling efficiency of 0.93 for the overall model performance. For the climate change scenarios, the model predicted that yield will decrease in a range of 2.9–39.6% under rainfed conditions and will increase in a range of 7.4–38.5% under irrigated conditions. Results suggest that temperature increases due to climate change will cause a shortening of plant growth cycles. Projection results also confirmed that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in sunflower water requirements in the future. Thus, the results reveal the necessity to apply adequate water management strategies for adaptation to climate change for sunflower production.

中文翻译：

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估计气候变化对土耳其科尼亚省向日葵产量的潜在影响

气候变化对农业生产力的影响难以评估。然而，确定气候变化的可能影响是决策者进行规划的绝对必要条件。该研究的目的是评估DSSAT4.7的CSM-CROPGRO-向日葵模型，并评估未来气候预测下气候变化对向日葵产量的影响。为此，在土耳其科尼亚省的半干旱条件下进行了为期 2 年的向日葵田间试验。雨养和灌溉处理用于模型分析。为了评估气候变化的影响，选择了三个全球气候模型和两个具有代表性的浓度路径，即 4.5 和 8.5。模型评价表明，该模型能够较好地模拟产量，d-指数为 0.98，整体模型性能的建模效率为 0.93。对于气候变化情景，该模型预测在雨养条件下产量将下降 2.9-39.6%，在灌溉条件下将增加 7.4-38.5%。结果表明，气候变化导致的温度升高会导致植物生长周期缩短。预测结果还证实，由于气候变化导致的温度升高将导致未来向日葵需水量的增加。因此，结果表明有必要采用适当的水资源管理策略来适应气候变化以生产向日葵。