SummaryRising flood damages have prompted local communities to implement buyout and property acquisition programmes to eliminate repetitive losses for at-risk properties. However, buyouts are often costly to implement and are reactionary solutions to flooding. This study quantifies the benefits of acquiring vacant private properties in flood-prone areas rather than acquiring such properties after they are built up. Using a geodesign framework that integrates concepts and analytical approaches derived from geographical, spatial and statistical-based disciplines, we analyse vacant properties with high development potential that intersect current and future floodplain areas in Houston (TX, USA). We use geospatial proximity analysis to select candidate properties, land-use prediction modelling to estimate future development and sea-level rise and benefit–cost analysis to assess the economic viability of buyouts. The results indicate that cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of vacant land acquisition by a factor of nearly two to one, and up to a factor of ten to one in selected areas. This study emphasizes the benefits of proactive property buyouts that focus on acquiring parcels before they are built up, while also avoiding the social and institutional problems associated with traditional buyout programmes.

中文翻译：

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在建造之前将它们买断：评估在洪水易发地区主动收购空置土地

摘要不断上升的洪水损失促使当地社区实施买断和财产收购计划，以消除风险财产的重复性损失。然而，收购通常实施起来成本高昂，并且是洪水的反动解决方案。本研究量化了在洪水多发地区收购空置私人物业而不是在这些物业建成后收购的好处。我们使用一个地理设计框架，该框架整合了源自地理、空间和基于统计的学科的概念和分析方法，我们分析了与休斯顿（美国德克萨斯州）当前和未来洪泛区相交的具有高发展潜力的空置物业。我们使用地理空间邻近度分析来选择候选属性，土地利用预测模型以估计未来发展和海平面上升，并进行效益成本分析以评估收购的经济可行性。结果表明，累积避免的洪水损失超过空置土地征用成本的比例接近 2 比 1，在选定地区高达 10 比 1。本研究强调了积极的房地产收购的好处，重点是在地块建成之前收购，同时也避免了与传统收购计划相关的社会和制度问题。