There is a longstanding belief among motion-pictures industry observers that box-office revenues are largely unaffected by poor macroeconomic conditions. This belief, which primarily grew out of the success of the film industry in the early years of the Great Depression, has been pervasive in the industry, and, to a lesser degree, among academics, despite a lack of empirical evidence to support it. This paper seeks to empirically evaluate the effect of recessions on box-office revenues of the U.S. motion-pictures industry using data from Box Office Mojo and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Database from 1990 to 2019. This period, which includes three periods of recession, is analyzed using a number of time-series econometric methods. Results show that macroeconomic fluctuations do have a significant effect on film-industry revenues and a declining economy curtails growth, as measured in terms of the mean of revenue and persistence over time. The depth of a recession appears to be an especially important determinant. These results inform future models of the film industry by highlighting the importance of macroeconomic effects on the industry as a whole.

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电影行业经济衰退的证据吗？

电影行业观察家长期以来一直认为，票房收入在很大程度上不受宏观经济状况不佳的影响。这种信念主要源于大萧条初期电影业的成功，尽管缺乏经验证据支持，但它在行业中普遍存在，在较小程度上在学术界也很普遍。本文试图使用 Box Office Mojo 和圣路易斯联邦储备银行经济数据库 1990 年至 2019 年的数据，实证评估经济衰退对美国电影业票房收入的影响。 这一时期包括三个时期经济衰退，使用多种时间序列计量经济学方法进行分析。结果表明，宏观经济波动确实对电影业收入有显着影响，而经济下滑会抑制增长，以收入的平均值和持续时间来衡量。衰退的深度似乎是一个特别重要的决定因素。这些结果通过强调宏观经济对整个行业的影响的重要性，为电影行业的未来模型提供了信息。