We estimate the revenue implications of a destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT) for 80 countries. On a global average, DBCFT revenues under unchanged tax rates would remain similar to the existing corporate income tax (CIT) revenue, but with sizable redistribution of revenue across countries. Countries are more likely to gain revenue if they have trade deficits, are not reliant on the resource sector, and/or—perhaps surprisingly—are developing economies. DBCFT revenues tend to be more volatile than CIT revenues. Moreover, we consider the revenue losses resulting from spillovers in case of unilateral implementation of a DBCFT. Results suggest that these spillover effects are sizeable if the adopting country is large and globally integrated. These spillovers generate strong revenue-based incentives for many—but not all—other countries to follow the DBCFT adoption.

我们估算了80个国家/地区基于目的地的现金流量税（DBCFT）对收入的影响。从全球平均水平来看，在税率不变的情况下，DBCFT的收入将与现有的企业所得税（CIT）收入相似，但在各个国家/地区的收入都有较大的重新分配。如果国家有贸易逆差，不依赖资源部门和/或（也许令人惊讶地）是发展中经济体，则各国更有可能获得收入。DBCFT收入往往比CIT收入更不稳定。此外，在单方面实施DBCFT的情况下，我们考虑了因溢出而造成的收入损失。结果表明，如果采用国很大并且在全球范围内一体化，那么这些溢出效应将是可观的。