A general definition of the 1-year premium risk in non-life insurance is given, which fully covers the risk associated with the change in premium provision. Based on the chain ladder method, a simple predictor is provided and a new analytic formula for the estimated prediction error is derived. Furthermore, the relationship with the claims development result is explicitly worked out. Finally, the formula is applied to publicly available data of a legal protection insurance company falling under Solvency II; and the resulting confidence intervals are compared to the reported premium risk capital.

中文翻译：

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1年期保费风险

给出了非人寿保险中1年保费风险的一般定义，该定义充分涵盖了与保费准备金变动相关的风险。基于链梯法，提供了一种简单的预测器，并推导了新的估计误差预测公式。此外，明确说明了与索赔开发结果的关系。最后，该公式适用于属于偿付能力标准II的法律保护保险公司的公开数据；然后将所得的置信区间与报告的保费风险资本进行比较。