The aim of the paper is to verify the existence of short- and long-term relationships between the strength of a trend and the volume in bullish and bearish cryptocurrency markets. We applied the vector error correction model to bitcoin daily data from 14.01.2015 to 22.12.2019. Based on the prices and following Wilder’s algorithm, the average directional movement index was calculated, and upward and downward trend periods were determined. No long-term relationship was found to exist between the strength of a trend and the volume in both bearish and bullish markets. Hence, trends do not react to volume changes. However, a long-term relationship exists between volume and trend—but only for the downward trend—with an adjustment speed of 88%. In the short-term, a statistically significant but very weak dependency is revealed; hence, the conclusion that trend strength is insensitive to volume changes can be reached.

本文的目的是验证在看涨和看跌的加密货币市场中趋势强度与交易量之间是否存在短期和长期关系。我们将向量错误校正模型应用于2015年1月14日至2019年12月22日的比特币每日数据。根据价格并遵循Wilder算法，计算平均方向运动指数，并确定上升和下降趋势周期。在看跌和看涨市场中，趋势强度与交易量之间不存在长期关系。因此，趋势不会对数量变化做出反应。但是，交易量和趋势之间存在长期关系（但仅针对下降趋势），调整速度为88％。在短期内，揭示了具有统计意义的但非常弱的依存关系；因此，