In October 2019, the preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran entered into force. In the present study, we estimated its expected impact on mutual trade flows at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the harmonized system six-digit level. The analysis suggested that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. The total gains in mutual trade were estimated to reach over USD 72 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran anticipated to increase by 19.1%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 7%. The difference in the impact is highly heterogeneous across the five EAEU countries and across sectors. The major export gains are estimated to accrue in the agri-food sectors—especially, trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables—and in the chemicals, textile, polymer production and selected electrical and machinery manufacturing sectors.

2019年10月，欧亚经济联盟（EAEU）与伊朗之间的优惠贸易协定生效。在本研究中，我们使用贸易的重力模型，基于协调系统六位数水平的双边贸易流量的全球样本，估计了其对总体和部门水平上互惠贸易流量的预期影响。分析表明，该协议的实施将促进双方贸易伙伴之间的相互贸易，而EAEU向伊朗的出口有望获得相对更大的收益。相互贸易的总收益估计将超过7200万美元，从EAEU向伊朗的出口预计将增长19.1％，而从伊朗向EAEU的出口将增长7％。在五个EAEU国家和部门之间，影响的差异高度不同。估计主要的出口收益将出现在农业食品部门，特别是杂果蔬贸易中，以及化学，纺织，聚合物生产以及某些电气和机械制造部门。