The idea that service-sector industries, rather than manufacturing, can drive growth and structural change has caught the imagination of several scholars and policy-makers. For India, the Information Technology (IT) industry is often cited as an example of one such industry. However, empirical evidence for such claims is still weak. This article evaluates the Indian IT industry’s potential for growth. Most studies on the subject focus on the narrower segment of IT-Services in India while we take a holistic view and consider the potential of both software product and services, IT hardware, outsourced/offshored business processes, and activities involved in creation of intellectual property. We evaluate the present position and future prospects of the industry including India’s position in the technology value chain as well as future opportunities for the industry in the context of relocation of global manufacturing value chains and growth of the domestic market. We also discuss the likely impact of technology on jobs in the overall economy, direct and indirect job creation potential of the IT-BPM (Business Process Management) sector and the spill-over effects of technology as an enabler of new business models. Finally, we draw some lessons for effective industrial policy.

服务业而不是制造业可以推动增长和结构变化的观点引起了一些学者和政策制定者的想象。在印度，经常将信息技术（IT）行业作为此类行业的一个例子。但是，这种说法的经验证据仍然很薄弱。本文评估了印度IT行业的增长潜力。关于该主题的大多数研究都集中在印度较小的IT服务领域，而我们则采取整体观点，并考虑软件产品和服务，IT硬件，外包/离岸业务流程以及与创建知识产权有关的活动的潜力。我们评估了该行业的当前地位和未来前景，包括印度在技术价值链中的地位，以及在全球制造业价值链重新定位和国内市场增长的背景下该行业的未来机会。我们还将讨论技术对整体经济中的就业机会的可能影响，IT-BPM（业务流程管理）部门直接和间接创造就业机会的潜力以及技术作为新业务模型的推动力的溢出效应。最后，我们为有效的产业政策吸取了一些教训。IT-BPM（业务流程管理）部门的直接和间接创造就业机会以及技术作为新业务模型的推动者的溢出效应。最后，我们为有效的产业政策吸取了一些教训。IT-BPM（业务流程管理）部门的直接和间接创造就业机会的潜力以及技术作为新业务模型的推动者的溢出效应。最后，我们为有效的产业政策吸取了一些教训。