An alternative course to Brexit for the UK is evaluated. The purpose of the study is to determine whether the UK would have been better off had, instead of Brexit, remained in the EU and joined the Eurozone. The model specification is based on the neoclassical theory of growth extended to include human capital accumulation. Counterfactual analysis in terms of the difference-in-differences methodology is applied to evaluate the effect in UK’s per capita income if the UK had joined the Eurozone when the Eurozone was formed. The dataset is a balanced panel of annual observations for fifteen countries and covers the period from 1980 to 2017. The analysis reveals that had the UK joined the Eurozone, UK’s per capita income would have been 15.48% higher on the average for the period after the formation of the Eurozone. This effect increases to 24.98% if Eurozone’s less performing economies of the southern periphery are excluded from the analysis. The study shows that Brexit is a move toward the wrong direction. The UK should have sought further integration with the EU in terms of presence in the Eurozone than pursue Brexit and leave the EU.

对英国脱欧的替代课程进行了评估。该研究的目的是确定如果英国留在欧盟并加入欧元区，而不是英国脱欧，情况会更好。模型规范基于增长的新古典理论，扩展到包括人力资本积累。如果英国是在欧元区成立时加入欧元区的，则采用差异分析法进行反事实分析，以评估英国人均收入的影响。该数据集是针对15个国家/地区的年度观测值的均衡面板，涵盖了1980年至2017年这段时间。分析显示，如果英国加入欧元区，英国的人均收入将比欧元区之后的平均水平高15.48％。欧元区的形成。此效果增加到24。如果将欧元区南部边缘地区表现欠佳的经济体从分析中排除，则为98％。研究表明，英国退欧是朝着错误方向的一步。就在欧元区的存在而言，英国本应寻求与欧盟进一步一体化，而不是寻求英国退欧并退出欧盟。