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Evaluating Financial System Stability Using Heatmap from Aggregate Financial Stability Index with Change Point Analysis Approach
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-08 , DOI: 10.1007/s10690-020-09326-0
Apriliani Gustiana , Nasrudin

The financial system stability is an important issue to be evaluated and controlled in order to withstand the threat of a crisis that may occur in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia has constructed Indeks Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (ISSK) to respond the issue, but ISSK is not considering global economy effect into the index construction. While there is another measurement called Aggregate Financial Stability Index (AFSI) that capable to consider both global economy and ISSK dimensions. However, each dimension is considered to have the same contribution to AFSI, despite the contributions are different in fact. Therefore, this research aims to construct AFSI using Change Point Analysis (CPA) on weighting stage for showing that each dimension has different contribution. The constructed AFSI was good and was able to capture crisis period that occurred in Indonesia during the research period. In addition, AFSI using CPA also utilized for knowing source of instability in each period using a heatmap. In general, instability that occurred in Indonesia dominantly caused by the vulnerability of financial system. This research also found that each period of crisis always follows by pressure from global economic condition. AFSI using CPA is expected to be an alternative or support measure of ISSK in determining related policies.

中文翻译:

使用总金融稳定性指数的热图评估金融系统稳定性和变化点分析方法

为了抵御印度尼西亚可能发生的危机威胁,金融体系稳定性是需要评估和控制的重要问题。印尼央行已建立 Indeks Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (ISSK) 以应对该问题,但 ISSK 并未将全球经济影响纳入指数构建。虽然还有另一种称为综合金融稳定指数 (AFSI) 的衡量标准,它能够同时考虑全球经济和 ISSK 维度。然而,尽管实际上贡献不同,但每个维度都被认为对 AFSI 具有相同的贡献。因此,本研究旨在在加权阶段使用变化点分析(CPA)构建 AFSI,以显示每个维度都有不同的贡献。构建的 AFSI 很好,能够捕捉到研究期间印度尼西亚发生的危机时期。此外,使用 CPA 的 AFSI 还用于使用热图了解每个时期的不稳定来源。总的来说,印度尼西亚发生的不稳定主要是由金融体系的脆弱性造成的。这项研究还发现,每个危机时期总是伴随着来自全球经济状况的压力。AFSI 使用 CPA 有望成为 ISSK 确定相关政策的替代或支持措施。这项研究还发现,每个危机时期总是伴随着来自全球经济状况的压力。AFSI 使用 CPA 有望成为 ISSK 确定相关政策的替代或支持措施。这项研究还发现,每个危机时期总是伴随着来自全球经济状况的压力。AFSI 使用 CPA 有望成为 ISSK 确定相关政策的替代或支持措施。
更新日期:2021-01-08
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