This paper studies the trade effects of COVID-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID-19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders’ vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.

中文翻译：

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大流行贸易：COVID-19、远程工作和全球价值链

本文使用从大流行开始到 2020 年 6 月的 28 个国家和多个贸易伙伴的月度分类贸易数据研究 COVID-19 的贸易影响。基于部门级引力模型的回归结果表明， COVID-19 冲击在各个部门之间差异很大。在整个大流行期间，更适合远程工作的部门收缩较少。重要的是，参与全球价值链增加了贸易商对贸易伙伴遭受冲击的脆弱性，但也降低了他们对国内冲击的脆弱性。