This paper discusses a new approach to quantify trade creation and trade diversion that relies on the structural decomposition analysis in an inter-country input–output framework. The proposed measure captures the contribution of trade creation (diversion) between two countries to the GDP growth of the home country, partner country and third countries. For a trial calculation, the author uses the 2016 release of the OECD inter-country input–output tables and focuses on the period 2000–11. Creation, diversion, but also contraction of trade flows are shown to be intrinsic to any pair of countries that may or may not be linked by a trade agreement. There is no evidence that the rise of free trade agreements in 2000s is associated with higher magnitude of these trade effects for an average country pair. The proposed approach is thought to be a useful alternative to econometric estimates of trade creation and trade diversion available to date.

中文翻译：

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以投入产出为基础衡量贸易创造和贸易转移

本文讨论了一种量化贸易创造和贸易转移的新方法，该方法依赖于国家间投入产出框架中的结构分解分析。拟议的衡量标准反映了两国之间的贸易创造（转移）对母国、伙伴国和第三国 GDP 增长的贡献。为了进行试算，作者使用 2016 年发布的 OECD 国家间投入产出表，并重点关注 2000-11 年期间。贸易流量的创造、转移以及收缩被证明是任何一对可能或可能不通过贸易协定联系在一起的国家所固有的。没有证据表明 2000 年代自由贸易协定的兴起与这些国家对平均贸易影响的更大程度有关。