A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short‐term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID‐19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 的经济和分配影响：来自南非经济宏观微观模型的证据

应用与微观模拟模型相关的可计算一般均衡模型来评估正在进行的 COVID-19 大流行对南非经济的潜在短期影响。特别关注分配结果，运行了两个模拟，一个温和的场景和一个严重的场景。调查结果显示了经济增长和就业下降的重要证据，在严重的情况下下降更为严重。微观经济学结果表明，大流行改变了收入分配曲线，使更多家庭落入贫困线以下，同时不平等程度下降。后一种结果是由于较富裕家庭的收入不成比例地下降，而最贫穷的人则得到政府社会补助金的缓冲，这些补助金在大流行期间保持不变。