The economic effects of the lockdown period in South Africa will be devastating. We simulated the industry level capacity constraints imposed by the lockdown regulations since 27 March 2020 on all industries in South Africa by reducing the amount of capital and labour available for production. We found a decrease in real GDP to 10% below the baseline level in 2020, and recovery of all industries and macroeconomic variables towards the baseline by 2027. Industries that are suffering and would continue to suffer are the hospitality and tourism industry and all industries related to it, such as transport services, as well as beverages and tobacco. Manufacturing in general is also hard hit because they were prohibited to let large groups of labourers enter their premises. The model shows that most manufacturing will suffer throughout the forecast period, which was modelled up to 2027.

中文翻译：

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延长禁售期对南非经济的可能影响：CGE分析

南非禁运期的经济影响将是毁灭性的。我们模拟了自2020年3月27日以来锁定法规对南非所有行业施加的行业水平产能约束，方法是减少可用于生产的资本和劳动力数量。我们发现实际GDP会在2020年降至基准水平以下的10％，并且到2027年所有行业和宏观经济变量都将恢复到基准水平。受苦且将继续受苦的行业是酒店业，旅游业以及所有与之相关的行业它，例如运输服务以及饮料和烟草。总体而言，制造业也遭受了沉重打击，因为它们被禁止让大批劳工进入他们的住所。