Nowadays, academic journals of high standing rarely accept a conceptual idea in a paper not instantly accompanied by econometric estimates. The idea would almost certainly get rejected. Empirical validation based on past statistical data has produced an unfortunate backward orientation in economics. While one can learn from the past, this approach fails when the underlying conditions strongly change.

中文翻译：

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后向经济学

如今，信誉卓著的学术期刊很少在没有立即伴随计量经济学估算的论文中接受概念性想法。这个想法几乎肯定会被拒绝。根据过去的统计数据进行的经验验证在经济学上产生了不幸的后退取向。虽然可以从过去中学到东西，但是当基本情况发生重大变化时，这种方法就会失败。