Violent conflict such as civil war may influence institutional quality by changing the political equilibrium or by changing preferences and norms. This study presents empirical evidence that in some cases civil war deteriorates institutional quality. By applying the synthetic control method to 25 cases of civil war between 1960 and 2010, I construct the counterfactual path of institutional quality in the absence of civil war. The effects of civil war are heterogeneous, but for a substantial minority of cases civil war appears to deteriorate institutional quality. These findings have implications for post‐civil war economic recovery as well as long run economic development.

中文翻译：

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暴力冲突与制度变迁*

诸如内战之类的暴力冲突可能会通过改变政治平衡或改变偏好和规范来影响制度质量。这项研究提供了经验证据，表明在某些情况下内战会降低制度质量。通过将综合控制方法应用于1960年至2010年的25例内战，我构建了在没有内战的情况下制度质量的反事实路径。内战的影响是多种多样的，但在极少数情况下，内战似乎会使机构质量恶化。这些发现对内战后的经济复苏以及长期的经济发展具有重要意义。