Taylor's eponymous ‘rule’ models how central banks set policy rates in response to inflation and output. We estimate a Taylor rule for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), modifying it to make it more realistic, while retaining its simplicity. The model implies that if the Bank responds to recent forecasts as it has on average since 1995, the cash rate could have briefly gone negative in 2020. But the RBA is wary of negative cash rates. There are grounds for caution; the economic outlook is particularly uncertain and the economy's response to negative rates is uncharted territory.

中文翻译：

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模拟澳大利亚储备银行的政策决策和负现金利率的案例

泰勒的同名“规则”模拟了中央银行如何根据通货膨胀和产出来设定政策利率。我们估计了澳大利亚储备银行 (RBA) 的泰勒规则，对其进行修改以使其更现实，同时保持其简单性。该模型暗示，如果央行像 1995 年以来的平均水平那样对最近的预测做出反应，那么 2020 年的现金利率可能会短暂为负。但澳大利亚央行对负现金利率持谨慎态度。有理由保持谨慎；经济前景尤其不确定，经济对负利率的反应是未知领域。