Since rock glaciers are believed to be more resilient to climate change, water stores therein may become important water reservoirs in future, in particular in dry regions, which currently rely on glacial runoff. In order to estimate and evaluate the future runoff potential from permafrost and rock glaciers, distributed runoff models suitable for high Alpine catchments are needed. An extension to the distributed Glacier Evolution and Runoff Model (GERM) to include permafrost and rock glaciers in Alpine catchments is presented here, and compared to the established one dimensional (1D) physics‐based model SNOWPACK. The new permafrost component introduced to GERM treats permafrost as discreet depth layers in a 1D column for all grid cells, which have bulk thermal properties calculated from their constituents (ice, water, air, and solid component). The temperature evolution is computed using heat conduction and latent heat exchanges, modified by ventilation effects. Finally, we infer water runoff from permafrost degradation. Ground temperature variations calculated by both models are compared to borehole measurements at three Alpine sites and similar performances are found. Differences between the models are present in the amplitude of seasonal ground temperature variations, with SNOWPACK having a tendency to slightly overestimate them, while GERM underestimates them.

中文翻译：

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高高山流域盆地规模的岩石冰川和多年冻土建模框架

由于岩石冰川被认为对气候变化具有更强的适应性，因此其中的水库将来可能成为重要的水库，特别是在目前依赖冰川径流的干旱地区。为了估算和评估多年冻土和岩石冰川的未来径流潜力，需要适用于高高山流域的分布式径流模型。本文介绍了对分布式冰川演化和径流模型（GERM）的扩展，其中包括高山流域的多年冻土和岩石冰川，并将其与已建立的基于物理学的一维（1D）模型SNOWPACK进行了比较。GERM中引入的新的永久冻土组分将永久冻土视为一维列中所有网格单元的离散深度层，其具有根据其成分（冰，水，空气和固体组分）计算的整体热特性。通过使用热传导和潜热交换来计算温度变化，并通过通风效果进行修改。最后，我们从多年冻土退化推断水径流。将两个模型计算出的地温变化与三个高山站点的井眼测量值进行比较，得出相似的性能。季节性地面温度变化幅度存在模型之间的差异，其中SNOWPACK倾向于略微高估它们，而GERM则低估它们。