Students’ sense of belonging at school has declined across the world in recent decades, and more so in Sweden than in almost any other high-income country. However, we do not know the characteristics or causes of these worldwide trends. Using data on Swedish students aged 15–16 years from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) between 2000 and 2018, we show that the decline in school belonging in Sweden was driven by a disproportionately large decline at the bottom part of the distribution, and was greatest for foreign-born students, students from disadvantaged social backgrounds, and for low-achieving students. The decline cannot be accounted for by changes in student demographics or observable characteristics related to the school environment. The decline did, however, coincide with a major education reform, characterized by an increased use of summative evaluation, and an overall stronger performance-orientation.

近几十年来，世界范围内学生对学校的归属感已有所下降，在瑞典，这种现象比其他任何高收入国家都更为严重。但是，我们不知道这些全球趋势的特征或原因。根据2000年至2018年间国际学生评估计划（PISA）的15至16岁瑞典学生的数据，我们显示，瑞典学生的学习成绩下降是由分布底部的不成比例的大幅下降所驱动，对于外国出生的学生，处境不利的学生和学习成绩欠佳的学生来说，这是最好的选择。下降的原因不能归因于学生人口统计的变化或与学校环境有关的可观察特征。但是，这种下降确实与重大的教育改革相吻合，