Exchange rate volatility is often perceived to cause a reduction in the overall level of trade. In view of the proliferation of rapid regional trade agreements in recent years, the unpredictability of exchange rate has prompted many economists to investigate the effects of the volatile nature of exchange rate on trade. Previous studies have neglected the sectoral data, focusing instead on the aggregate trade flows which may have led to incomplete conclusions. The present paper aims to fill this lacuna by employing a proper specification of the gravity model using a panel of 95 countries that trade with South Africa over the period 2000–2017. Two major findings emerge. First, using aggregate data, the results suggest that nonlinear volatility has a positive and significant effect on trade, whereas linear volatility does not exert any impact on trade. Second, using sectoral data, the paper finds that there is no definite effect of volatility on trade.

人们通常认为汇率波动会导致总体贸易水平下降。鉴于近年来快速的区域贸易协定激增，汇率的不可预测性促使许多经济学家研究了汇率波动性对贸易的影响。先前的研究忽略了部门数据，而是将重点放在可能导致结论不完整的总贸易流量上。本文旨在通过使用适当的重力模型规范来填补这一空白，该模型由一个在2000-2017年期间与南非进行贸易的95个国家组成的小组组成。出现了两个主要发现。首先，使用汇总数据，结果表明非线性波动性对贸易产生了积极而显着的影响，而线性波动不会对贸易产生任何影响。其次，利用部门数据，论文发现波动对贸易没有确定的影响。