Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study.

Design/methodology/approach

This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular. Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system.

Findings

As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside. To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised.

Practical implications

Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned.

Originality/value

Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary; thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system. This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems.

中文翻译：

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系统角度作为理解旅行和旅游业中断的工具

目的

本文的目的是通过对COVID19的爆发作为案例研究，来帮助人们理解系统思想及其对战略远见和情景规划的价值，以应对来自外部的破坏力。

设计/方法/方法

该概念文件简要讨论了系统思考的概念和复杂的自适应系统的概念，并将其放在整个当代社会的背景下，尤其是在旅行和旅游业的背景下。引入战略预见和情景规划作为一种方法，以预测复杂的适应性旅行和旅游系统中的破坏。

发现

正如COVID-19所表明的那样，旅行和旅游业对外界的干扰非常敏感。为了确保长期的弹性和可持续性，强调了战略预见和情景规划中嵌入的系统方法。

实际影响

战略性的远见和情景规划是一项可以学习的能力。

创意/价值

鉴于COVID-19和其他破坏旅游业的现状，有必要对未来采取有弹性的方法；因此，该观点论文的价值在于自适应能力系统的命题。本文为理解和管理复杂性和自适应系统提供了建议。