After dropping rapidly and steadily over two decades, fertility in Iran stabilized between 2001 and 2011 at around 1.9 to 2 children per woman, before starting to rise slightly between 2012 and 2016, then falling fairly quickly. This coincided with the implementation of the Islamic Republic’s new population policy, with its aggressive and coercive measures, one of whose goals was to reverse the downwards trend in fertility. Given changes in proximate and remote determinants of fertility in Iran, and the decline in fertility since 2016, it is assumed that this new population policy triggered a reduction in intervals between births between 2012 and 2015, leading to a slight rise in the fertility of already married couples. The other latent objective of the Islamic Republic’s new population policy is to drive Iran’s population up to 150 million inhabitants in the near future. This is utopian given Iran’s demographic dynamics, but it conceals the political and ideological goal of asserting Iran’s demographic and geopolitical significance within the region, by drawing on a novel immigration policy to make up for its low fertility.

中文翻译：

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伊朗伊斯兰共和国的新人口政策和近期生育率变化

在 20 年快速稳定下降后，伊朗的生育率在 2001 年至 2011 年间稳定在每名妇女生育 1.9 至 2 个孩子，然后在 2012 年至 2016 年间开始小幅上升，然后迅速下降。这恰逢伊斯兰共和国实施新的人口政策，采取了积极和强制性的措施，其目标之一是扭转生育率下降的趋势。鉴于伊朗生育率的远近决定因素的变化，以及自 2016 年以来生育率的下降，假设这一新的人口政策引发了 2012 年至 2015 年生育间隔的缩短，导致已经的生育率略有上升。已婚夫妇。伊朗伊斯兰共和国新人口政策的另一个潜在目标是在不久的将来使伊朗人口达到 1.5 亿。考虑到伊朗的人口动态，这是乌托邦式的，但它通过利用新的移民政策来弥补其低生育率，掩盖了主张伊朗在该地区的人口和地缘政治重要性的政治和意识形态目标。