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Vulnerability of seaports to hurricanes and sea level rise in a changing climate: A case study for mobile, AL
Coastal Engineering ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.103884
Mohamed A. Abdelhafez , Bruce Ellingwood , Hussam Mahmoud

Approximately 10% of the world's population lives and works in low-lying coastal regions that are less than 10 m above sea level. This percentage is likely to increase during the remainder of the 21st century due to population growth and economic development. This growth brings the potential for increasing damage and economic losses due to tropical cyclones (hurricanes in North America) accompanied by storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in an era of climate change. This study reviews and critically appraises the potential impact of the aforementioned multi-hazards on a typical coastal seaport community in the Gulf Coast of the United States. A new model for quantifying the functionality of seaports subject to these multi-hazards is implemented in a fault tree analysis. An analysis to enable the study of the impact of hurricanes, storm surge, and SLR on port facilities is validated using data from Hurricane Katrina. A case study of the Port of Mobile, AL reveals that if a Katrina-like hurricane were to occur late in the 21st Century, damages to the Port of Mobile would increase by a factor of nearly 7 under an RCP 8.5 scenario when compared to the damages caused by Hurricane Katrina alone.



中文翻译:

气候变化中的海港易受飓风和海平面上升的影响:以AL为例的流动性研究

世界上约有10%的人口在海拔不到10 m的低洼沿海地区生活和工作。由于人口增长和经济发展,该百分比在21世纪剩余时间内可能会增加。在气候变化时代,热带气旋(北美的飓风)伴随着风暴潮和海平面上升(SLR),这种增长为潜在的破坏和经济损失增加提供了可能。这项研究回顾并严格评估了上述多重危害对美国墨西哥湾沿岸典型沿海海港社区的潜在影响。在故障树分析中实现了一种新的模型,用于量化遭受这些多重危险的海港的功能。进行分析以研究飓风,风暴潮,港口设施上的SLR已使用来自卡特里娜飓风的数据进行了验证。对阿拉巴马州莫比尔港的案例研究表明,如果在21世纪后期发生类似卡特里娜飓风的飓风,与RCP 8.5方案相比,对莫比尔港的破坏将增加近7倍。仅由卡特里娜飓风造成的损失。

更新日期:2021-04-23
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