Active managers operating quick portfolio adjustments, backed only by some rough estimates and loose predictions, might improve their market timing performances to benefit in turbulent times, but oversimplification can lead to an inability to profit in calm markets. By selecting accuracy levels upfront, through different data-filtering techniques, we expose a trade-off between prediction accuracy and reaction speed across different hedge funds' investment styles. Our empirical analysis shows that less accurate predictions can speed up reactions to unexpected changes in a large set of uncertainty and risk measures. We justify and complement these findings with a simulation exercise.

积极的经理人可以进行快速的投资组合调整，仅以一些粗略的估计和宽松的预测为依据，可能会改善他们的市场时机表现，以在动荡的时期中受益，但过度简化会导致在平静的市场中无法获利。通过预先选择准确度水平，通过不同的数据过滤技术，我们可以在不同对冲基金投资风格的预测准确度和反应速度之间进行权衡。我们的经验分析表明，不太准确的预测会加快对大量不确定性和风险度量中意外变化的反应。我们通过模拟练习来证明并补充这些发现。