This paper proposes a decomposition for the total trade deficit of a country by using implications of a dynamic trade model. It is shown that the total trade deficit of a country can be decomposed into changes due to its effective terms of trade, its relative trade costs, and its macroeconomic developments with respect to its export partners. The implications for bilateral trade are estimated using both imports and exports data for 188 countries, and the decomposition of total trade deficit is achieved for each country. Empirical results show evidence for heterogeneity across countries regarding the decomposition of trade deficits, suggesting alternative policy tools to rebalance trade at the country level. A cross-country investigation further suggests that relative trade costs, followed by relative macroeconomic developments, have contributed the most to the heterogeneity of trade imbalances.

本文利用动态贸易模型的含义，提出了一个国家总贸易逆差的分解方法。结果表明，由于一个国家的有效贸易条件，相对贸易成本以及相对于其出口伙伴的宏观经济发展，一个国家的总贸易逆差可以分解为变化。双边贸易的影响是利用188个国家的进出口数据以及总和的分解来估算的每个国家都实现了贸易逆差。实证结果表明，各国在贸易赤字的分解方面存在异质性，这表明在国家层面重新平衡贸易的替代性政策工具。一项跨国调查进一步表明，相对贸易成本，随后是相对宏观经济发展，对贸易失衡的异质性影响最大。