The study provides insight into the future of the forest-based bioeconomy sector in selected Southeast European (SEE) countries. It elicits experts’ understanding of forest-based bioeconomy, their opinion and level of agreement on future implementation of the bioeconomy concept by 2030/2050, through two-round Delphi. The study also provides the state-of-the-art of the bioeconomy related policies in selected countries for the readers’ better understanding of the context among other. Results showed that (i) instead of explicit national and regional bioeconomy strategies, Serbia, Croatia and North Macedonia have bundle of bioeconomy related documents, across diverse forest-related sectors, which directly or indirectly address bioeconomy concept; (ii) the forest-based bioeconomy concept is seen as observable; there are expected future changes in the forest sector by expansion of the current forest-based sector to added-value products/applications; (iii) forest ownership isn’t expected to change from small-scale to large scale ownership, followed by crucial role of policy changes, for further fostering a forest-based bioeconomy concept, and for raising awareness among forestry professionals; (iv) by 2030 the need for cross-sectoral cooperation will increase, which will initiate approach change in forestry professionals, and increase demand for woody biomass; (v) by 2050 forest-based value chains and business models will become more diverse. Bigger changes are expected by 2050. Study contributes to better understanding of SEE and national contexts for implementation of the forest-based bioeconomy. Further priorities setting through regional and/or national forest-based bioeconomy strategic documents could support its implementation.

这项研究提供了对某些东南欧（SEE）国家基于森林的生物经济领域的未来的见识。它通过两轮的德尔菲会议，激发了专家们对基于森林的生物经济的理解，他们的意见以及对在2030/2050之前实施生物经济概念的共识的程度。该研究还提供了所选国家/地区与生物经济相关政策的最新信息，以使读者更好地了解其背景。结果表明：（i）塞尔维亚，克罗地亚和北马其顿没有采用明确的国家和地区生物经济策略，而是在与森林有关的不同部门拥有捆绑的生物经济相关文件，这些文件直接或间接地涉及生物经济概念；（ii）以森林为基础的生物经济概念被认为是可以观察到的；通过将当前的以森林为基础的部门扩展到增值产品/应用，森林部门有望发生未来的变化；（iii）预计森林所有权不会从小规模所有权转变为大规模所有权，其次是政策变更的关键作用，以进一步树立基于森林的生物经济概念，并提高林业专业人员的认识；（iv）到2030年，跨部门合作的需求将增加，这将引发林业专业人员的方式改变，并增加对木质生物量的需求；（v）到2050年，基于森林的价值链和商业模式将变得更加多样化。预计到2050年将有更大的变化。研究有助于更好地了解SEE和实施基于森林的生物经济的国家情况。