Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of \(-\,0.41\) considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of \(-\,0.63\) at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.

粮食是在近代早期欧洲（最重要的食物来源Ç。1500-1800），其价格影响整个经济。气候变化决定谷物价格变化的程度仍存在争议，太阳周期对价格的影响的说法也有争议。我们在全面的统计分析框架内，通过使用前所未有的大型谷物价格数据集以及最新的古气候重建和长期的气象序列，彻底重新评估了这些问题。在整个欧洲，粮食价格与温度之间的负相关关系非常显着（即较冷=高价格，反之亦然）。该关联在较大的空间和时间尺度上增加，并达到\（-\，0.41 \）的相关性考虑欧洲谷物平均价格和上一年6月至8月的温度（以年度分辨率计），以及\（-\，0.63 \）的年代际比例。这种牢固的关系是情节性的，而不是周期性的（周期性的）性质。在谷物价格中，仅检测到微弱且空间不一致的水气候信号（降水和干旱），与太阳的变化没有有意义的联系。温度对谷物价格的持续影响很大，这意味着这种迅速变化的气候要素在欧洲经济历史中，甚至在南欧，都是比公认的更为重要的因素。