Many Mediterranean-type climates around the world will face increased risks of wildfires as a consequence of climate change. In this study we consider the case of Portugal and estimate the impact of the increasing risk of forest fires on tourism. Using data for 278 municipalities for the 2000–2016 period, we find a considerable negative impact of burned areas on the number of tourist arrivals, both domestic and inbound. We go beyond the traditional impact analysis and provide predictions for 2030 and 2050. The estimated annual costs to the Portuguese economy due to the impact of burned areas in 2030 range between €17.03 and 24.18 million for domestic tourist arrivals and between €18.26 and 38.08 million for inbound ones. In 2050, those costs will increase at least fourfold. These findings underscore the importance of taking the forest fire risks into account when planning local investments.

中文翻译：

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火灾没有假期：火灾对旅游业的影响

由于气候变化，全球许多地中海型气候将面临更大的野火风险。在这项研究中，我们考虑了葡萄牙的情况，并估计了森林火灾风险增加对旅游业的影响。使用 2000-2016 年期间 278 个城市的数据，我们发现被烧毁的地区对国内和入境游客的数量产生了相当大的负面影响。我们超越了传统的影响分析，并提供了对 2030 年和 2050 年的预测。2030 年由于烧毁地区的影响，葡萄牙经济的估计年度成本在 17.03 到 2418 万欧元之间，国内游客到访人数在 18.26 到 3808 万欧元之间对于入境的。到 2050 年，这些成本将至少增加四倍。