ABSTRACT

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits.

摘要

埃塞俄比亚大复兴水坝（GERD）有望使埃塞俄比亚的发电量翻一番，并影响尼罗河流向苏丹和埃及的水量。我们使用可计算的一般均衡模型以及生物物理模型先前的研究结果，分析了GERD长期运营对苏丹的潜在经济影响。根据水电增长20％和假设的快速灌溉扩张时间表，结果显示GERD可以帮助苏丹在2020-60年度期间的累计国内生产总值（GDP）增加47-830亿美元（不包括初始投资成本）以及其他GERD的负面和正面影响）。在新的灌溉计划中选择作物是增加苏丹宏观经济效益的关键。