Salmonella has long presented a major problem for the food safety of broiler meat. As the popularity of alternatively produced (e.g. organic) broiler meat increases, an understanding of the food safety risks associated with these types of products is needed. The purpose of this study was to develop a retail-to-consumption quantitative microbial risk assessment model that could be used to estimate the differences in risk of salmonellosis acquired from the consumption of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat in the United States annually. Data were extracted and used to define distributions that could be used to estimate Salmonella growth during retail storage, transportation, and home storage, as well as concentration changes during preparation and due to cross-contamination. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was performed to estimate the risk of infection per serving and total number of infections in the United States annually from both meat types. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the factors that were highly correlated with increased risk of salmonellosis. Conventionally produced chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 6.4 $\times$ 10⁻⁸ and cause an average of approximately 3,880,000 infections annually compared with a median risk of infection per serving of 7.7 $\times$ 10⁻⁸ and average of approximately 641,000 estimated infections for alternatively produced chicken. The sensitivity analysis identified cross-contamination of hands during meal preparation as the most important factor linked to risk. The ‘what-if’ scenario analysis estimated that using antimicrobial soap during hand washing after handling raw chicken can reduce the risk considerably. The developed risk assessment model provides information on the public health risk of conventionally and alternatively produced broiler meat. These results will be useful in determining the key intervention strategies to mitigate the food safety risks associated with the consumption of contaminated chicken products.

沙门氏菌长期以来一直是肉鸡食品安全的主要问题。随着替代生产（例如有机）肉鸡越来越受欢迎，需要了解与这些类型产品相关的食品安全风险。本研究的目的是开发一种从零售到消费的定量微生物风险评估模型，该模型可用于估计美国每年因食用传统和替代生产的肉鸡而获得的沙门氏菌病风险差异。提取数据并用于定义可用于估计沙门氏菌的分布零售储存、运输和家庭储存期间的增长，以及制备期间和由于交叉污染导致的浓度变化。进行了 100,000 次迭代的蒙特卡罗模拟，以估计每份食物的感染风险和美国每年两种肉类的感染总数。进行敏感性分析以确定与沙门氏菌病风险增加高度相关的因素。据估计，传统生产的鸡肉每份的感染风险中值为 6.4$\times$10 ^-8并导致平均每年大约 3,880,000 次感染，而每份感染的中位风险为 7.7$\times$10 ^-8和平均大约 641,000 估计的替代生产鸡的感染。敏感性分析确定膳食准备期间手的交叉污染是与风险相关的最重要因素。“假设”情景分析估计，在处理生鸡肉后洗手时使用抗菌肥皂可以大大降低风险。开发的风险评估模型提供了有关常规和替代生产的肉鸡的公共卫生风险的信息。这些结果将有助于确定关键干预策略，以减轻与食用受污染鸡肉产品相关的食品安全风险。